Bush and Iraq

Considering that a major majority of the US public is dissatisfied with our Iraq involvement, current administration faces a serious political and possible legal dilemma. To not make immediate reductions in troop numbers or other actions indicating an effort to extricate the US from Iraq in the near future will drive even more moderate Republicans and independents to support Democratic investigations as to how we got there, why we're there and why we're not leaving.

From an administration point of view, their historical legacy now depends entirely on what happens in Iraq and to a lesser extent US economics over the next 18-months. Do they increase US presence in Iraq in an attempt to achieve victory for a thoroughly corrupt Iraqi government pursuing revenge against the former ruling party? We actually don't have the ability to accomplish that as estimates have been and are 3-400k US troops to successfully occupy Iraq and quell the violence.

All reports I've read about the new Iraq government being capable of governing itself by fielding a military and civilian police force effective to a point of controlling insurgency and common crime are negative, suggesting it will take years of building management structure and loyalty while eliminating corruption. To complicate that process, Kurds have their own military and will not share their oil resources just as Northern Shiites refuse to share their oil resources, leaving Sunnis with no potential wealth for reconstruction, encouraging increased violence with Sunni Sauds supporting insurgency.

Last but not least is the US economic impact of reducing military spending in Iraq. The US economy is primarily dependent on consumer and government spending facilitated by debt. Any serious drop in consumer confidence will affect US ability to peddle US debt in those countries that currently support our spending binge by selling their products here. Staying in Iraq is now a public political issue. A US economic slow down will put enormous public pressure on the new congress to reduce military expenditures for a yet to be defined 2007budget.

I think it will be extremely difficult for current administration to successfully use the current refocus of defining Iraq as a central theater for a war on terrorism as a rationale for continuing a fruitless Iraq effort now under very close scrutiny by congress and the American public. Beyond a now small core of party dogs, blind patriots and the usual self-serving political interests, that card won't play. A new attack on the US by al Queda would only reinforce public opinion that Iraq was a classic blunder and waste of US resources.