Questions on Latin America

Here are some questions to think about in this year:

-Can Evo Morales ratify a new constitution without serious violence or even civil war? If that happens, then perhaps there is more hope for Ecuador as well.

-Can Hugo Chávez re-energize his base and move forward with his socialist project? And related, will a real opposition movement emerge?

-Will South America move in a unifying direction (e.g. expanding the Bank of the South, Mercosur, etc.) or will that remain largely rhetorical?

-Thinking of Lula, where is the biofuel debate going? The corn-based model seems to be creating serious problems (e.g. higher prices) but can sugar—or other products--represent a viable model of alternative fuel?

-In what direction will Cristina Fernández de Kirchner go? Will she depart at all from her husband’s political and economic strategies? How will she deal with the U.S.? Will the U.S. election matter?

-Will the Concertación—and thereby Michelle Bachelet’s chances of getting anything done--hold together in Chile? To be fair, rumors of its death have been greatly exaggerated in the past.

-Can the Mexican opposition regroup? Felipe Calderón is popular yet by no means untouchable, but the left is still reeling.

-With Raúl Castro—whose tone and message are different from Fidel’s--more in charge, will there be substantive political and/or economic reforms in Cuba?

-Can Central American countries address drug trafficking and gang violence without also bringing the military back to fighting internal enemies?

-Once the U.S. presidential candidates are decided, will they say anything intelligent about Latin America and U.S. policy?

-Will the immigration debate in the United States reach new lows? Will it be a central issue once the primaries are over?